Ashok Dhillon
Jan 31, 20205 min
Finally, after three years of the most chaotic and embarrassing displays of political incompetency by England’s ruling Tories (the Conservatives), Great Britain and the European Union (EU) parted company, with the MEPs (Members of European Parliament) ratifying the ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ that governs Britain’s exit from the EU. The actual withdrawal will take place Friday January 31st, 2020, at the midnight hour, Brussels time. Now that Brexit has actually happened - now comes the consequences of the breakup for both the entities, Great Britain and the EU.
It is safe to say that both sides will suffer initially from the breakup.
At first, in the EU, there will be some feelings of despondency over the partial breaking of the EU model, with one of its major Member State leaving the Union.
There had been a lot of effort and goodwill invested over the decades to pull together, and then keep together, one of the greatest experiments in world history in unity, cooperation and peaceful co-existence among diverse peoples. This was in a region of the world where the Member States were historically the bitterest of rivals, and the geographical region was the battleground of the greatest wars.
It was an extraordinary vision and its unlikely success over the many decades was in-of-itself an extraordinary achievement.
The EU was the closest thing to a modern economic and political miracle of humanity’s common purpose, fulfilled by a collection of diverse nations, races, languages and cultures working as a united whole; an impossible dream that manifested itself as the EU and held together for decades.
This dream of diverse nations ‘United as One’, for the common good, seems all the more implausible in the current political atmosphere of resurgent Nationalism, with all its toxic suspicions, intolerances, and politically stoked racisms, and bigotry. The EU experiment, after the horrors of the First and Second World Wars, was particularly impressive and noble – 19 countries together, with many others striving to qualify and join, and in spite of Britain leaving, still very much alive.
Some think Britain’s exit from the EU means that the extraordinary achievement that EU was, will fail. And the dream of EU will die. We don’t think so.
Some in Britain chaffed under the need of collective governance of the EU bureaucracy, and wanted ‘independence’ from those constraints, which is understandable enough, but in seeking that independence, they rather unscrupulously magnified the negative and minimized the positive.
Now that Britain has actually broken away, the negatives of going it alone will automatically magnify, as the positives of standing alone will be equally minimized. Most in the EU understood that, and will stay together.
In Great Britain, for most, there will be a huge feeling of relief that this living nightmare called Brexit is finally over, regardless of how they had voted.
But, there will also be starkly different reactions to Brexit itself among the population, as the reality sinks in; as half that voted for it, will be overjoyed, and the other half that wanted to remain within the EU, will be heartbroken.
While almost all of EU wanted Britain to remain, only half or less of the British public (if one takes into account the people who regretted voting to leave, after the Referendum) wanted to leave the EU. And of those that wanted to remain in the EU, they fought hard for the past three years the political instability (as vote after vote in the British Parliament failed to ratify the leaving), hoping to remain.
Going forward, there are going to be almost immediately, the tough and acrimonious trade negotiations between the EU and Britain, under tight timelines, which will govern the future relationship in business and trade, and will affect both their economies going forward, in the short and long terms.
Then there are the possible modifications to the myriad agreements that the two entities will want to keep intact, such as mutual defence and cooperation treaties, and vital memberships in the 29 countries organizations such as NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which include North America.
All of this will eventually be worked out, and each entity will adapt to the separation and carry on.
The questions which will linger for a while are - who will adapt best, and who will feel the negative impact of Brexit the longest? Our guess is that Great Britain will find the long term impact of Brexit more challenging, with EU remaining, comparatively, the much stronger.
While the loss of Great Britain, one of the major Member States, is damaging to the EU as it diminishes the collective heft of the Union, both as trading block and as political-body in international affairs, but in spite of the loss, the EU will remain a formidable trading-block both in economic and geo-political terms. For Britain the diminution of its exit from the EU is far more consequential.
In trading with other countries, England now has a fraction of the heft it had as being a part of the collective mass of a united EU. In political discourse, internationally, once again to have any real clout, England will have to align itself with like-minded western powers like the EU and the US, among others, like the rest of the Commonwealth countries. By itself, it no longer has the power and influence it once had, as during its heydays as the globe spanning Great Britain.
The advantages for Great Britain as part of the open border and open trade ‘EU’ were tremendous. The almost seamless flow of goods, services and labour between Britain and the EU were economically stabilizing, and price wise, cost effective. The ease of business and trade between the countries of the EU, including England, resulted in prices and wages being kept in check, on the whole, for decades, and presented opportunities for both European and British business.
Economic stability along with free flow of manpower between European countries which were members of the EU, and Great Britain, meant that people from both sides of the English Channel were free to seek opportunities on both sides, which the young particularly took advantage of.
But that same ease of borders, and the fear of war and economic refugees from the Middle East, Asia and Africa, was used by the proponents of Brexit to stoke fear and resentments, which in a large measure, led to the winning votes for Brexit in the Referendum.
By the time a lot of the people who voted for Brexit found out they had been misled, it was too late to seek reversal of their votes through another Referendum. The extent of the lies and deception of the Brexit politicians will now be revealed daily in the absence of all the advantages of EU membership the British people took for granted for so long. And as Britain moves forward alone, much reduced, and with the possibility of fracturing further (if Scotland seeks Independence) after Brexit, it will find itself facing economic giants to contend with, in the US, China and the EU, and none of them will be gentle in forcing concessions. So it’s hello Brexit, and possibly a much reduced Great Britain.